Another tinfoil hat theory

There is no shortage of conspiracy theories about a secret group ruling the world. I don't happen to subscribe to any of them because I've seen no evidence. But I do understand the appeal of the idea. So I thought I'd add fuel to the fire.

One problem with a secret group is that it is impossible to keep it secret for long. Every group eventually spawns a Paris Hilton type who simply can't avoid the spotlight. Succeeding generations become increasingly overconfident until they feel invincible.

Another problem with secret groups is maintaining focus and motivation across the generations. History is rife with examples of wildly divergent personalities among monarchs. Kings and queens seldom behave the same as their predecessors or successors even when they are direct genetic relations.

Given just these two problems (I'm sure there are plenty of others) I really have no confidence in the ability of any group to stay in control of the entire world across several generations.

But... what if there aren't generations? What if it is a group of unusually long-lived individuals? Such a group would avoid the problems noted above. In addition, such a group would have time to develop connections and amass wealth. They would be able to develop power beyond the reach of people with a more limited lifespan.

At first it sounds like complete fantasy. But is it? We still don't understand the aging process. There is still debate about whether aging is an unavoidable fact programmed into our DNA or whether it is some sort of environmental issue.

Obviously, if death is not a genetic trait then immortality is a simple matter of avoiding death. Eat right, exercise, avoid disease, don't take unnecessary risks and you should live forever. Whether or not that's feasible is an open question. Even without disease and accident there is the possibility that the environment is still killing you. I've always thought the aging process looks remarkably similar to radiation poisoning. So it wouldn't surprise me to find out the natural background radiation of the Earth was the root cause of old age and "natural" death. I also suspect our own mind becomes our enemy at some point. It's worth noting how many people die of "natural" causes just after retiring or after seeing their grandchildren graduate or some similar milestone. It's as if they simply give up and decide they are no longer needed (the "it's my time" mentality). But maybe a well-motivated person could avoid such pitfalls. So without a genetic doomsday clock it may be possible for humans to survive centuries instead of decades.

And a genetic doomsday clock does not entirely negate the possibility of near-immortality. There's already a wide diversity of "natural" lifespans. Some people die "naturally" in their sixties. Others live beyond a century before succumbing to death. So we don't know where the doomsday clock is set or even if there is a default setting. It is almost certain that there would be a range of lifespan settings just like there is a range of height or a range of hair colors that varies between individuals. More importantly, for this theory, if there is a genetic doomsday clock then it is susceptible to mutation like any other gene. We know about the rare genetic disorder, progeria, which causes children to age rapidly and die ridiculously young. Is it not probable there is an equally rare, or even more rare, disorder that slows or eliminates the aging process? Such a thing may never be documented for the simple reason that no sane person is likely to go to the doctor to find out why they haven't died yet.

So either with or without a genetic limit on human lifespan it may be possible for some humans to live for generations. And it's hard to imagine what an individual could accomplish with that ability. I know that I am suffering into my forties for mistakes I made in my late teens. I may not recover from those mistakes before my fifties. If I only live to my seventies then I would have lived most of my life trying to correct stupid mistakes. But if I live well into the hundreds... well then I could recover from those mistakes, learn from them, and enjoy life without regretting how much of it I wasted trying to fix what I broke.

If it were possible to live for centuries, how would that affect a person? It seems likely that even the most noble individual would at some point develop a god complex. How could you not? How could you maintain any connection with the rest of humanity when you keep watching them die off around you? It seems inevitable that you would at some point look at short-lived humans the same way most of us look at pets; people would be an amusing, but easily replaced, diversion.

Once you reach that point, the world becomes a huge game of Sims. You could use the connections and influence you spent decades building to manipulate the world for your own amusement. You might even compete against other immortals to see who held most sway with the masses. Which would explain much of why the world is as fucked up as it is today.

Just to be clear, I am not saying this is the way the world is. Like all good tinfoil hat theories this is just plausible enough to not be totally ludicrous. We don't need a race of immortal puppeteers pulling strings behind the scenes to explain the rampant discord of human civilization. All it takes is a handful of completely mortal zealots to ruin everything. And we have more than a handful.

A question for physicists

I confess I have no grasp whatsoever of advanced physics. I understand Newton's work, simple mechanics, just fine. But quantum mechanics, string theory, super symmetry... these are inconceivable to me. This lack of knowledge leads me to question an assertion I've seen made several times.

I'm told that the leading theories predict as many as ten or eleven dimensions in our universe. Remarks about these multiple dimensions are frequently followed by the caveat that  these dimensions do not mean there are supernatural forces dwelling there and influencing our lives. My question is, how do you know that?

I've been an atheist most of my life. But even I have to wonder what the presence of multiple dimensions means to us. How can anybody say with certainty that we aren't a three-dimensional Sims game on some four-dimensional schoolkid's laptop? There are still unsolved mysteries about our own dimensions. How can we possibly know anything about other dimensions which we can't even examine? Does matter exist in these other dimensions? Don't give me that "not as we know it" cop-out. If "stuff" is in these higher dimensions then how can we say that this "stuff" can't form into intelligent life? And wouldn't intelligent life in a higher dimension almost by definition be a god to us? Much like we are gods to pixels on a screen.

Thoughts on alien life

Science fiction movies and television shows often portray aliens as remarkably humanoid. This is obviously a matter of convenience since most of the actors available to portray aliens are themselves typically humanoid. But it's become somewhat common for people to critique these shows for a perceived lack of imagination in the design of the aliens. The objection is that aliens would look completely different, dare I say "alien". But is this really the case? Would aliens really look so terribly different from us?

I want to be clear that I am specifically talking about intelligent aliens. We know from our own animal kingdom that life can take on a huge variety of bizarre forms. So there's every reason to think alien creatures would be every bit as diverse and bizarre as what we see here.

But intelligent life is another story all together. There have been many millions of species on this planet since life began. Yet, as far as we know, only one has evolved into intelligent life. Why is that? Convergent evolution clearly demonstrates that unrelated species can independently evolve similar traits. Insects, birds, and bats, for example, all independently evolved flight because flight offered some survival advantage. Intelligence has undoubtedly given us a tremendous survival advantage. So why are we the only species to have it?

I submit that physiology plays a role in the answer to that question. One of the keys to advancing intelligence is the use of tools. This requires a degree of dexterity not seen in many species. Right off the bat, we are limited to creatures that are accustomed to grappling things. This means mainly arboreal or other climbing creatures. Appendages suited for gripping limbs or ledges will be equally suited for gripping sticks, rocks, and more advanced tools. Whereas hooves, wings, and paws are poorly suited for tool use. So horses, falcons, and tigers are unlikely to begin using spears.

A tree or cliff dwelling creature that for some reason decides to begin living on flat ground will also find itself with spare limbs. Forelimbs once essential for gripping the next branch or crag would now be free to carry any number of tools or supplies while leaving the hind limbs free to move the creature about the landscape. This is important since a tool is of little use if you have to set it down every time you move.

Some may argue that tentacles could also allow tool use. But I think this is unlikely. Tentacles have never evolved on land. This is probably due to some physiological limit of the mechanism. So while tentacles are undoubtedly useful and dextrous in their environment, it is their environment that is the problem. Advanced technology, and the intelligent life that co-dependently evolves with it, cannot arise in an aquatic world. You can't smelt ore, harness fire, or build electronics underwater. An aquatic species might possibly advance a ways. But it would be limited to stone age technology. That may or may not be sufficient to qualify as intelligent. But it is certainly not sufficient to communicate with spacefaring species.

Even an amphibious species would be rather unlikely to gain intelligence. Use of fire is a fundamental first step on the road to intelligence. An amphibious species is highly unlikely to develop an affinity for fire. Their need to stay moist is directly at odds with fire's tendency to dry things out. Amphibious creatures don't tend to live in areas where it gets cold enough to require fire for warmth since such cold would make it difficult to maintain the moisture of an amphibian's skin. Without fire a species is again limited to the stone age.

So it seems logically that any intelligent species would have to be terrestrial in origin. But there are still deductions we can make to further define the characteristics of an intelligent species. There must be a minimum size to any intelligent creature. It takes a certain amount of brain capacity to be intelligent. This means there must be a minimum size body to support that minimum size brain. But it is entirely unclear just how large a species must be before the brain reaches the critical mass for sentience. Sentient mice are certainly out of the question. Sentient dogs? Who knows?

There is probably even be an upper limit to the size of an intelligent species. Beyond a certain size, what tools can a species build? Dinosaurs could never have woven cloth much less developed microchips. They could never have ground lenses to make telescopes to examine the stars. Just how big can a species get before the fine details of technology escape its grasp?

Certainly there is room for a great deal of diversity. Species could have more senses, fewer senses, different numbers of sensory organs, more limbs, any number of variations. But I really don't see any logical support for the idea that intelligent aliens would look vastly different from us. There are real limits on the growth of intelligence. Limits that apparently exclude all but one species out of millions. If there were a broad range of traits that allowed for intelligence to flourish then we would surely see more intelligent species on Earth. Since we don't see a wide variety of intelligent life here on Earth there's no reason to suspect we'd see a wide range of intelligent life elsewhere. So there's no reason for writers to create truly bizarre creatures for their shows.

Beyond misogyny

I don't think "misogyny" is a sufficiently all-encompassing term. I would like to propose a new term to add to our repertoire of epithets, "gynophobia".

I propose this term because there is a group of humans who don't necessarily "hate" women as the "mis-" in "misogyny" implies. Rather, this group tends to view women as something to be avoided or shunned. This group is primarily made up of "feminists" who do everything they can to disavow their femininity. They are afraid, ergo "phobic", of everything pertaining to women, ergo "gyno-".

Compare the modern "feminist" to the only woman I can think of who truly represents what a feminist should be, Mae West. Mae West celebrated her femininity. She did everything she could to accentuate her sexuality. But she also stood on equal ground with the men who surrounded her. She reveled in her promiscuity, even if that promiscuity was exaggerated. She was strong-willed, independent, subservient to no-one. There was no doubt she considered herself the equal of any man. And she attained that status without disavowing her femininity in the slightest.

The only modern example of true feminism I can think of is fictional, the character "Ripley" from the "Aliens" movie franchise. She didn't flaunt her sexuality the way Mae West did. But she did embrace her nurturing "motherhood" side with both the stray child "Newt" and later with the hybrid creature she had to kill. And she embraced that nurturing aspect while still being equal to, even superior to, the men around her.

Gynophobia is just as destructive as misogyny. Gyno- and andro- represent the yin and yang of humanity. We've had thousands of years of dominance of the andro-. Where has that left us? We need women to elevate the gyno-, to celebrate it and restore the balance society is lacking.

Meet the new god...

Other atheists keep telling me that religion is nothing more than belief in some supernatural force. It's belief in something we can't see, can't measure, but that still manages to control our lives. Alright. For the sake of argument, let's go with that idea. That means that "string theory" is a religion.

If you don't already know, string theory is all about a force that exists in higher dimensions than our own. Strings are the source of everything we see, but we cannot measure them or test them in any way. So strings are god.

Absolute morality?

I just finished a debate on morality with a moral realist. For those who don't know, moral realists are certain that there are absolute moral laws very much like there are absolute laws of physics. My own view is that morality is a human construct and mostly subject to the whims of individuals and society. That makes me a moral relativist. What scared me about the debate, and gave me reason to distrust realists, is the stance the bloke had on the idea of competing moralities.

My opponent made the comment that there is only one right way to look at any given question. Reasonable enough, yes? He went on to say that people who do not believe this one right way are delusional or self-deceptive. What? So now if you argue with the Right Way you aren't defending an alternate stance, you are mentally ill. He continued by saying that there is no requirement for external, objective proof of which way is the right way. So the Righteous can make up whatever moral law they want and they don't have to provide rational support for their law.

Taken together, these views account for all the evil that has ever been wrought on humanity. Stalin, for example, was convinced that those who did not believe in his moral crusade to help the proletariat were just misguided. He established "re-education" camps to help these delusional folks find their way back to the moral path.

This sort of absolutism is dangerous. This is what allows people to justify all manner of atrocities. Such absolutists are convinced they, and they alone, hold the key to human salvation.

If you want to claim your way is the One True Path you had better bring some evidence. Newton didn't just claim, "my theory of gravity is the right one!" He backed his claim with testable facts. Today, nobody questions the veracity of his claims. Because everybody can see he was right. If you want everybody to see you are right you better bring the hard facts so that people find it impossible to dispute your claims. Just saying, "because I said so" will not fly.

Beating a dead horse (yet another assault on the climate change hoax)

I watched the movie, "Pandora's Promise" the other day. I admit it gave me a sense of smug satisfaction to see a bunch of environmentalists finally realize that nuclear power is the most ecological power possible. For the most part, the movie was informative and entertaining. They actually showed the numbers supporting the benefits of nuclear. And I learned there have been people living cancer-free in Chernobyl since about a year after the catastrophe that was supposed to render half of Europe permanently uninhabitable. I was absolutely amazed by that.

But, being environmentalists, they couldn't make it through an entire film without banging the war drum for Anthropogenic Climate Change. Which I once found only mildly annoying. Now that the Cult of Gaia has become the official doctrine of the land, however, I can no longer stand the ignorance of these people.

First of all, they went on about CO2 emissions. It has been a documented, proven scientific fact for some two decades now that CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by a matter of centuries. So CO2 emissions cannot be part of the problem. A cause must precede an effect. On top of that, CO2 is hardly a toxin. CO2 is critical to plant life. More CO2 means more plants. Just ask any gardener or even aquarist who uses supplemental CO2 to improve plant growth. So when I hear any Gaian complain about CO2 levels I know they are ignorant of even the most basic science. This makes it impossible to take them seriously afterwards.

Secondly, and this is the one that really makes me want to paint my face and head to war, they insist on saying that anybody who disagrees with them is a "denier". The use of this word, and the tone that accompanies it, pretty much amounts to calling people "heretics". And that's exactly the sort of ad hominem attack you expect from people who cannot support their position with data.

The one Gaian went so far as to say that those who "deny" ACC simply cherry-pick data to support their position. This is at least a rational accusation. But it's also demonstrably false. And here are some globally-recognized facts that are not subject to cherry-picking but which definitely support my assertion that ACC is a hoax being perpetrated in the name of social engineering;

1) CO2 emissions, the great boogeyman of the Cult of Gaia, do not cause climate change. So why are CO2 emissions at the center of virtually every ACC debate? They are a non-issue

2) Human contributions to the known and suspected greenhouse gasses amount to less than half a percent of the total levels. So even if humans ceased to exist there would still be more than 99.5% of the greenhouse levels Gaians so vociferously preach about.

3) The Milankovitch Theory. This is the big one. While the average person on the street may not know this, the Earth has been cycling between cold and warm spells for a very, very long time. This current warm spell started some 18,000 years ago-- long before the Hummer or even coal power. And Milutin Milankovitch calculated the cause of this cycle roughly a century ago. In the early 1900s, Mr. Milankovitch calculated that the Earth would go through glacial periods on a roughly 100,000 year cycle. And every bit of evidence we've discovered since then have supported his calculations. Variations in the Earth's orbit and the tilt of the Earth's axis combine to create variations in the amount of heat our planet absorbs from the sun. This is known science. It's been accepted fact for a century. So how is it cherry-picking to say that this effect is doing now what is has done the last several glacial cycles?

What the Gaians are doing is simple social engineering. They know the average person is too busy worrying about what Lady Gaga is wearing to be bothered to read anything remotely scientific. They count on your ignorance to make you gullible and easily manipulated. They are doing exactly what the Aztecs (or was it the Mayans?) once did. The Aztec/Mayan priests understood solar eclipses. They had records of them and calendars to predict them. But they knew the average peasant was ignorant of eclipses. So the Aztecs/Mayans would display their "power" by holding ceremonies when the sun was due to be "eaten". Just as the world went dark and all seemed lost, the priests would perform a sacrifice-- lo and behold! The sun was reborn and so was the peasants' faith in the power of the priests. It was all smoke and mirrors.

And so it is with the Gaians. They know the Milankovitch theory is proven fact. They know CO2 is not an issue. But they also know that you can be made to believe there is a problem. And they know that by making you believe there is a problem they can then manipulate you into following them down whatever primrose path they choose to take you down.

To any Gaians who happen across this post and wish to challenge me, your task is simple. You believe humans are causing more warming than would naturally occur. So all you have to do is demonstrate what warming would occur right now without any human involvement. It really should be a simple task. Just compare this interglacial warm spell with the last seven or eight the Earth has experienced. See what the normal variation is between those seven or eight interglacial warm spells. Then compare this current interglacial warm spell to those previous ones to see if there is any statistically significant difference between this one, with evil humans present, and the previous ones. That should have been the first step in all this, see if there really is an athropogenic component to this current warming trend.

But I want to issue a further challenge to the Gaians as well as give other Freethinkers something to ponder. In the Jurassic age, arguably the high-point of the dinosaurs, there was no polar ice and probably little snow except at the highest elevations. So why is the reduction of polar ice now something to fear? The dinosaurs lived in a tropical paradise. Can you prove we wouldn't have that again if the icecaps melted entirely? Are you even familiar with how the hydrologic cycle works? You do realize that ice at the poles is water that could be sustaining life elsewhere on the planet, right? If the icecaps melted we would have increased rainfall globally. Combined with the increased CO2 levels we would have increased plant growth. Can you prove that a warmer Earth than we have now would not result in expanded tropics? Can you prove that life would not flourish if the Earth continued warming like it flourished millions of years ago, before the ice ages began? Because my belief is that the best thing we could do for humanity, and all lif on the planet, is to deliberately melt the Antarctic ice. That would reduce solar reflectivity, allow the Earth to absorb more heat from the sun, and free up precious water for all creatures to drink. My way gives us longer growing seasons, more CO2, and more rainfall. How does this in any way seem wrong? Can you Gaians prove your way is better than mine? Would you really prefer another glacial age to another Jurassic age?

If you Gaians want to accuse me of cherry-picking data you have to prove the Milankovitch Theory is wrong. Or you have to prove that this interglacial warm spell is going to be significantly hotter or last significantly longer than history would predict. And that this longer/warmer warm spell is inherently a bad thing. Those are fundamental facts, not trivial bits of data. So put up or shut up.